In 2020 the Swedish Institute of International Affairs published a report called “Russia in 2045: A Scenario Analysis”. In this document, the author emphasizes how Russia may be transformed in the not too distant future. Within the framework of this analytical paper Russian economic development, political regime, foreign and security policy are reviewed and evaluated. The most precious part of the report is dedicated to possible scenarios of development that Russia may face with.
In this article it is analyzed:
- How will the Russian economy and politics look like in 20-25 years?
- Which are the key scenarios for the overall development (or decay) in Russia?
- The role of Russia in the international arena in 2045.
To start with, it is important to say a few words about the author of the report and the organization that he is affiliated with. Martin Kragh is a Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme (it is a department of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs that analyses foreign policy, defence and security issues, democracy and development tendencies, governance, globalization and society). This organization aims to expand knowledge about the key problems and issues of both foreign and domestic policies of various states. The objective of SCEEUS is to reach a better understanding of the East Europe region, although opinions presented by Swedish experts and scientists may differ significantly from the generalized vision that is typical for counties of the former USSR.
1. Outline of the Main Findings
First and foremost, it is reasonable to consider the typical features of the Russian political system. The author claims that authoritarian tendencies have been reinforced since the early 2000-s and nowadays it is indisputably to say that strategic decision making is concentrated at the pinnacle of the system of power. However, preserving the current state of the political regime is not the only way the Russian political system may look in the not too distant future. In contrast to the tightening of the regime, one may find a possibility of restoration of the constitutional order. In other words, there may be seen a period of transition that may form a base for further political reforms to be implemented by new decision-makers.
The second alternative is seen in regime disruption. Despite the ongoing prevalence of co-optation, censorship, active propaganda and selective repression, Martin Kragh tends to believe that as time goes by these methods may become less and less effective in suppressing dissenters. The key reasons for this may lie in the following:
1. The gap between expectations that prevail in Russian society and the reality that citizens live in is widening;
2. The role of social media that diversify the content that people consume;
But the status-quo option is still more than possible according to Martin Kragh. He believes that we cannot exclude the probability of reinforcement of authoritarianism if Vladimir Putin remains the state’s leader. Furthermore, it is visible that in the report Putin’s way of governing is compared with the one performed by Nursultan Nazarbayev (the former president of Kazakhstan).
The Red Square, MoscowNow we are going to turn to the next chapter of the report that is dedicated to the economic development of Russia. Initially, Martin Kragh acknowledges that the economic growth noticed from 00-s till 2008 was associated with the personality of Vladimir Putin and affected his popularity and authority, however since the world economic crisis that happened in 2008-2009 Russia has been experiencing serious problems in the economy that are related not only to the aftermath of the crisis itself but also to regulation disruption. For instance, it is claimed that the fundamental problem of the Russian economy is structural which means that Russia lacks law regulation, has a high corruption level. The author states that reforms haven’t been implemented yet just because if they were introduced, it would drastically affect the current political equilibrium.
From the perspective of the economy there may be seen the following scenarios:
1. No reforms, no change;
If this scenario happens, the author claims that the main purpose of the reforms’ avoidance would be the aim to preserve the current “political equilibrium”.
2. Economic reform;
By mentioning the scenario of economic reforms, Martin Kragh means that some reforms that facilitate investment and aggregate demand may be implemented. These steps can be required to improve Russian position in world trade.
3. Economic disruption;
This possibility cannot be ignored because the gap between Russian and some western countries like the United States may become too wide someday so that Russia loses chances to compete with more sophisticated products and systems. To prevent this situation, Russia ought to reinforce its technological and innovative capacities due to be more competitive in these spheres until it becomes too late.
The last chapter of the report is dedicated to Russian foreign and security policy and its evolution.
As for the scenario of further contradictions between Russia and the western community, it is stated that one of the reasons may lie in the amount of defence expenditure. Furthermore, Martin Kragh is convinced that grey zone tactics main gain importance in the foreseeable future and adds that they serve Russian security interests and can be adjusted to the local context.
Increased cooperation with the outside world is not treated as a highly probable scenario but it is still cannot be fully rejected. The author admits that the chances of cooperation under current political conditions appear to be limited, however, in the future the degree of confrontation may be significantly reduced. But mostly if Russia makes concessions to the Western countries.
After the main analysis of possible scenarios is made, the author highlights the fact that these scenarios can also appear in different combinations but alongside he shows the main tendencies that are prevailed according to his viewpoint.
1. There is a widening gap between Russia and the biggest economies.
2. Russia hardly ever can stay competitive in the spheres of technological advances in machine learning and automation, genetic engineering, quantum computing and alternative energy.
3. The EU-Russia relationship will be multilateral and contingent on the countries’ shared neighborhood (primarily the Eastern Partnership countries). The main obstacle in relations between Russia and Europe will be conflict resolution and the occupied territories.
Russia, USA, EUThus, according to forecasts, Russia's future position will follow the logic of one of the proposed future scenarios. The author presented many alternatives related to the path of evolution of politics, economics and foreign policy, but at the moment it seems difficult to predict which path Russia will take. We should emphasize that the review of the report reflects the point of view of one of the leading Swedish analysts Martin Kragh, but this does not mean that the document fully reflects the complex views of Western countries regarding the future of Russia. This is just one of the countless combinations (politics, economics, security) of the opinions of the representatives of the Western community. In my opinion, it is extremely difficult to make an accurate forecast, because the development of a particular country depends on a countless number of factors, many of which cannot be predicted. For example, the coronavirus pandemic was unexpected for everyone and has radically changed the ordinary life of people, political and economic trends, and much more. It is impossible to exclude the possibility that an event that would be at least partially similar in consequences to the pandemic (but an event of a completely different nature) may occur in Russia, provoking some changes. However, scenario analysis is in any case a useful thing, allowing us to prepare to some extent for the upcoming changes and think about the algorithm of actions and the possible reaction of other actors.
Автор: Александра Шабардина
Telegram-канал: https://t.me/interstudies
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Источник статьи: Russia in 2045: a Scenario Analysis.